Gold spot prices and election year cycles?

Gold spot prices and election year impact of the 2012 elections:

Gold spot prices and election year gold price chart below got me thinking about the influence of Presidential choice on gold spot prices and election year.

See Hunting for Gold spot prices: current gold spot price election year for the current bullion or spot price. But as you’ll see the current gold price flattening isn’t everything. Gold prices are really sensitive to the emotions of politics and economic news. This is especially true in the gold rush roller coaster of election years…

Gold Prices Election Cycles 2002-2012
Gold prices and election cycles (Click to zoom)

As for Presidential election years and gold prices

It’s not too surprising that gold prices fluctuate around the four year election cycle and especially the 2008 and 2012 cycles. Elections are when government leaders out do themselves in making government policy and economic news look good to the average citizen for obvious election influencing reasons. Notice that it didn’t matter which party was in office either. Gold spot prices and election year jumps afterwards were present.

These politically driven four year news spin cycles affect gold prices in part because the gold commodity market is driven by future price speculation* based on current economic events, that so called “good economic news” makes gold prices sink, until the reality of the current economic situation sinks in like a bad after election hangover.  At that time we usually see the up, up and away escalation in gold pricing.

So, we can probably expect gold to continue its climb in 2013-14 unless real and significant progress is made in the world’s economic situation. That’s not very likely to happen based on current debt levels and a variety of consumer demographic shifts. No matter who wins this election, the economic deficit situation is cooked in and will take over driving gold prices again by next January.

Gold rush season 3 reality check – Your election year gold prices will vary

As Discovery channel’s massively successful reality show “Gold Rush” has shown viewers over and over, reality may not always be as it appears on the surface. Gold prices and the real gold rush are no different. In reality the last few inter election cycles have been a period of massive government spending in addition to the policy of monetary “easing.” Monetary easing is a fun phrase meaning “bailout cash from future financed thin air.”  In turn, gold which has been seen as a safe haven from government currency debasement or inflation for thousands of years. In turn this activity has led to a huge run up in prices. A current question has been “will the gold bubble burst?”  The answer lies in finding when the monetary giants get back in control and stop printing currency out of nothing. Until that happens gold prices will stay up and up as shown on the 10 year gold price chart on this page.

My two cents, or rather my two ounces of gold…

What does this observation mean to you the gold prospector? Currently gold has cooled about 14% from the $1900 high of September 2011. That’s a pretty typical investor profit capture situation. The question we must ask is what’s gold’s next move? If gold goes higher you have begun the adventure of a lifetime, even if there’s a flattening or small drop like this year you still have a big advantage. In fact you have an advantage over gold investors and coin collectors, check out the gold nugget hunter’s pricing advantage.

To see what nugget hunter’s look forward to when considering gold prices, look at the page I mentioned earlier for the nugget price multiplier for why gold prospecting is such a cool thing to do. If you think the $1900.00 per ounce price was good, you should try more than doubling it by digging up a good sized nugget or two!

Good Prospecting,

Prospector Jess
P.S.  Remember to bookmark, link & share the current gold price page for tip on Gold Nugget Prices.

P.P.S. *Gold future speculation is required in the gold trading market, because new gold is not yet out of the ground and that fact leads to a huge mining investment risk as to the estimated amount of gold & precious metals to be possibly recovered. Gold Rush star Todd Hoffman on Discovery Channel’s “Gold Rush” reality TV has demonstrated this effect over and over when he speculates how much gold his team will recover in his – “next Gold Rush season 3.”  He now claims next years gold recovery will be much greater than this year’s $100,000.00 worth, right?  Meanwhile Discovery channel takes all the hidden investor’s risk … 😉 LOL!


  1. John Jones says

    Gold Rush TV is just that, a TV entertainment program, I seldom ever watch it and believe it is not in the best interest of real life gold prospecting!

    At age 74 I am interested in the fact that there is gold in the land and rivers around me, it is mostly very fine gold and is difficult to understand and to recover.

    I have managed to devise methods to locate, recover and capture a couple of ounces of clean dry gold and while that’s encouraging, it only serves to teach me that I have got so much more to learn about gold.

    That is why I am here on [] I am impressed with what PJ has to say and the way he presents his lessons on the entire subject.

    So far it’s been slow going but the subject has taken billions of years to happen so I guess patience (as they say) is a virtue!

    John. New Zealand.

  2. Jay Walser says

    Hello All

    JUst signed up for this page and like what I see. I have had outings looking for gold in the New Mexico area. Mostly around Jicarilla area in the central part of New Mexico. I made a good friend with a old miner that got ran off his calm because of the BLM. He still have several claims that I’m a load to pan on, but its all under the New Mexico forst. Here is a link to his story good luck to you guys.

  3. Hamid.P says

    Hi ,
    i agree too , and i think the investor should be keep and stock their gold , not limitied on paper.
    it seem gold will rush to new and fresh records , 1920 / 2150 / 2500 per OZ , and maybe arround 3000$ at 2013 .
    Please Respect to your golds as a safe tools.
    as well dont forget the Oil price arround 150-160$ for next years.

  4. Sir Arthur says


    I’ve been a happy lurker at your fascinating and informative site for several months now. Your experience and knowledge have earned my respect to the point where I wish to solicit your sage advice.

    I am in my mid-50s and am considering a radical career change from professional philately to precious metals mining geology.

    In 1996 I served a summer internship as a lab technician at Barrick Goldstrike Mines in the Carlin Trend, which was my first and only foray into the gold mining industry. Although I had the opportunity to join Barrick right after the internship, I was more inclined to resume professional philately rather than pursue a degree in Geology.

    The philatelic market served me well as a consultant until 2009, but since then my experiences in this field have indicated to me that it might be time to turn to other occupational interests that offer better long prospects, hence my renewed interest in Geology as a career with an emphasis on precious metals mining/prospecting.

    Returning to school for a BS in Geology (I’m considering the Mackay School of Mines) then job-hunting in my late 50s (possible, in spite of occasional ageism I expect to encounter, given my very free and flexible lifestyle that will enable me to work anywhere, but still daunting), while saddled with substantial debt that will probably take 10 years to pay down, appears riskier than spending that time and money studying the metals markets, investing in bullion, and learning enough geology, etc. on my own to prospect independently and/or partner with like-minded folk who have years of both geologic and business experience.

    What do YOU think ??

  5. says

    Nice article, Jess. I’d never really looked at gold in relation to election cycles, but it makes sense there’d be some correlation. My guess though, is that the debt problems in parts of the EU may be an even bigger driver. Instability is good for gold. Either way, the end result is higher gold prices.

    As for Gold Rush, one thing I will say for the Hoffmans, they’ve been good for business.


    • Prospector Jess says

      Hey Eathan,

      Thanks for your input!

      I agree about EU (with US and China) as potential major driving forces in the gold future mix. My main observation was about the repeated pattern of decline then followed by rapid and prolonged rise. I am responding in part to questions about the gold boom being over. There’s reason to believe the big rise in gold spot prices won’t begin again until around the elections or just after. Right now the gold future crystal ball looks a bit cracked… :(

      As for the Hoffman’s impact on our business of gold prospecting, hats off to them! Even if they could use some more prospecting experience & training… LOL


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